If You Care About Being Thought Credible

To Know Whether You Can Trust A Particular Intuitive Judgment, There Are Two Questions You Should Ask: Is The Environment In Which The Judgment Is Made Sufficiently Regular To Enable Predictions From The Available Evidence? The Answer Is Yes For Diagnosticians, No For Stock Pickers. Do The Professionals Have An Adequate Opportunity To Learn The Cues And The Regularities? The Answer Here Depends On The Professionals' Experience And On The Quality And Speed With Which They Discover Their Mistakes.

People's Mood Is Really Determined Primarily By Their Genetic Make-up And Personality, And In The Second Place By Their Immediate Context, And Only In The Third And Fourth Place By Worries And Concerns And Other Things Like That.

The Effort Invested In 'getting It Right' Should Be Commensurate With The Importance Of The Decision.

We Can Be Blind To The Obvious, And We Are Also Blind To Our Blindness.

Most Successful Pundits Are Selected For Being Opinionated, Because It's Interesting, And The Penalties For Incorrect Predictions Are Negligible. You Can Make Predictions, And A Year Later People Won't Remember Them.