Often, The Most Enjoyable Part Of An

That's One Of The Real Dangers Of Leader Selection In Many Organizations: Leaders Are Selected For Overconfidence.

Organizations May Be Better Able To Tame Optimism Than Individuals Are.

We Were Required To Predict A Soldier's Performance In Officer Training And In Combat, But We Did So By Evaluating His Behavior Over One Hour In An Artificial Situation. This Was A Perfect Instance Of A General Rule That I Call Wysiati, "what You See Is All There Is." We Had Made Up A Story From The Little We Knew But Had No Way To Allow For What We Did Not Know About The Individual's Future, Which Was Almost Everything That Would Actually Matter. When You Know As Little As We Did, You Should Not Make Extreme Predictions Like "he Will Be A Star."

I Used To Hold A Unitary View, In Which I Proposed That Only Experienced Happiness Matters, And That Life Satisfaction Is A Fallible Estimate Of True Happiness.

The Psychologist, Paul Rozin, An Expert On Disgust, Observed That A Single Cockroach Will Completely Wreck The Appeal Of A Bowl Of Cherries, But A Cherry Will Do Nothing At All For A Bowl Of Cockroaches.