Precise Forecasts Masquerade As Accurate Ones.

If The State Polls Are Right, Then Mr. Obama Will Win The Electoral College. If You Can't Acknowledge That After A Day When Mr. Obama Leads 19 Out Of 20 Swing-state Polls, Then You Should Abandon The Pretense That Your Goal Is To Inform Rather Than Entertain The Public.

Precise Forecasts Masquerade As Accurate Ones.

The Problem Is That When Polls Are Wrong, They Tend To Be Wrong In The Same Direction. If They Miss In New Hampshire, For Instance, They All Miss On The Same Mistake.

People Have Different Ways Of Interpreting History.

Race Is Still The No. 1 Determinant In Every Election.