We Speak For Them. We Imbue Them

People Don't Have A Good Intuitive Sense Of How To Weigh New Information In Light Of What They Already Know. They Tend To Overrate It.

Shakespeare's Plays Often Turn On The Idea Of Fate, As Much Drama Does. What Makes Them So Tragic Is The Gap Between What His Characters Might Like To Accomplish And What Fate Provides Them.

You Can Build A Statistical Model And That's All Well And Good, But If You're Dealing With A New Type Of Financial Instrument, For Example, Or A New Type Of Situation - Then The Choices You're Making Are Pretty Arbitrary In A Lot Of Respects.

The Signal Is The Truth. The Noise Is What Distracts Us From The Truth.

I Prefer More To Kind Of Show People Different Things Than Tell Them 'oh, Here's What You Should Believe' And, Over Time, You Can Build Up A Rapport With Your Audience.