The Signal Is The Truth. The Noise

Remember, The Congress Doesn't Get As Many Opportunities To Make An Impression With The Public.

The Problem Is That When Polls Are Wrong, They Tend To Be Wrong In The Same Direction. If They Miss In New Hampshire, For Instance, They All Miss On The Same Mistake.

You Don't Want To Influence The Same System You Are Trying To Forecast.

Success Makes You Less Intimidated By Things.

The Key To Making A Good Forecast Is Not In Limiting Yourself To Quantitative Information.