We Are Far Too Willing To Reject

There Are Domains In Which Expertise Is Not Possible. Stock Picking Is A Good Example. And In Long-term Political Strategic Forecasting, It's Been Shown That Experts Are Just Not Better Than A Dice-throwing Monkey.

I Enjoy Being Active, But I Look Forward To The Day When I Can Retire To The Internet.

To Know Whether You Can Trust A Particular Intuitive Judgment, There Are Two Questions You Should Ask: Is The Environment In Which The Judgment Is Made Sufficiently Regular To Enable Predictions From The Available Evidence? The Answer Is Yes For Diagnosticians, No For Stock Pickers. Do The Professionals Have An Adequate Opportunity To Learn The Cues And The Regularities? The Answer Here Depends On The Professionals' Experience And On The Quality And Speed With Which They Discover Their Mistakes.

Facts That Challenge Basic Assumptions-and Thereby Threaten People's Livelihood And Self-esteem-are Simply Not Absorbed. The Mind Does Not Digest Them.

One Study Found That People Who Just Thought About Watching Their Favorite Movie Actually Raised Their Endorphin Levels By 27 Percent.