The Dominance Of Conclusions Over Arguments Is

Although Professionals Are Able To Extract A Considerable Amount Of Wealth From Amateurs, Few Stock Pickers, If Any, Have The Skill Needed To Beat The Market Consistently, Year After Year.

It's A Wonderful Thing To Be Optimistic. It Keeps You Healthy And It Keeps You Resilient.

I Don't Try To Be Clever At All. The Idea That I Could See What No One Else Can Is An Illusion.

We Were Required To Predict A Soldier's Performance In Officer Training And In Combat, But We Did So By Evaluating His Behavior Over One Hour In An Artificial Situation. This Was A Perfect Instance Of A General Rule That I Call Wysiati, "what You See Is All There Is." We Had Made Up A Story From The Little We Knew But Had No Way To Allow For What We Did Not Know About The Individual's Future, Which Was Almost Everything That Would Actually Matter. When You Know As Little As We Did, You Should Not Make Extreme Predictions Like "he Will Be A Star."

You Know, The Standard State For People Is 'mildly Pleasant.' Negative Emotions Are Quite Rare, And Extremely Positive Emotions Are Rare. But People Are Mildly Pleased Most Of The Time, They're Mildly Tired A Lot Of The Time, And They Wish They Were Somewhere Else A Substantial Part Of The Time - But Mostly They're Mildly Pleased.