Voters' Memories Will Fade Some.

First Of All, I Think It's Odd That People Who Cover Politics Wouldn't Have Any Political Views.

Whenever You Have Dynamic Interactions Between 300 Million People And The American Economy Acting In Really Complex Ways, That Introduces A Degree Of Almost Chaos Theory To The System, In A Literal Sense.

Racism Is Predictable. It's Predicted By Interaction Or Lack Thereof With People Unlike You, People Of Other Races.

I'm Not Trying To Do Anything Too Tricky.

To The Extent That You Can Find Ways Where You're Making Predictions, There's No Substitute For Testing Yourself On Real-world Situations That You Don't Know The Answer To In Advance.