There's Always The Risk That There Are

There's Always The Risk That There Are Unknown Unknowns.

I Think Punditry Serves No Purpose.

Success Makes You Less Intimidated By Things.

The Key To Making A Good Forecast Is Not In Limiting Yourself To Quantitative Information.

We Want To Get 80%-85% Of Predictions Right, Not 100%. Or Else We Calibrated Our Estimates In The Wrong Way.