The Quest For Certainty In Forecasting Outcomes

Almost Everyone's Instinct Is To Be Overconfident And Read Way Too Much Into A Hot Or Cold Streak.

Any One Game In Baseball Doesn't Tell You That Much, Just As Any One Poll Doesn't Tell You That Much.

I Think A Lot Of Journal Articles Should Really Be Blogs.

I Actually Buy The Paper Version Of The New York Times Maybe Once Or Twice A Week.

To The Extent That You Can Find Ways Where You're Making Predictions, There's No Substitute For Testing Yourself On Real-world Situations That You Don't Know The Answer To In Advance.