The General Laws Of Nature Are Not,

Probability Is Expectation Founded Upon Partial Knowledge. A Perfect Acquaintance With All The Circumstances Affecting The Occurrence Of An Event Would Change Expectation Into Certainty, And Leave Nether Room Nor Demand For A Theory Of Probabilities.

It Follows That The Word Probability, In Its Mathematical Acceptance, Has Reference To The State Of Our Knowledge Of The Circumstances Under Which An Event May Happen Or Fail. With The Degree Of Information We Possess Concerning The Circumstances Of An Event, The Reason We Have To Think That It Will Occur, Or, To Use A Single Term, Our Expectation Of It Will Vary. Probability Is The Expectation Founded Upon Partial Knowledge.

The General Laws Of Nature Are Not, For The Most Part, Immediate Objects Of Perception.

It Is Not Of The Essence Of Mathematics To Be Conversant With The Ideas Of Number And Quantity.

I Am Now About To Set Seriously To Work Upon Preparing For The Press An Account Of My Theory Of Logic And Probabilities Which In Its Present State I Look Upon As The Most Valuable If Not The Only Valuable Contribution That I Have Made Or Am Likely To Make To Science And The Thing By Which I Would Desire If At All To Be Remembered Hereafter.