People Have Little Idea, By And Large,

The Amount Of Success It Takes For Leaders To Become Overconfident Isn't Terribly Large.

A Person Who Has Not Made Peace With His Losses Is Likely To Accept Gambles That Would Be Unacceptable To Him Otherwise.

I Have Always Believed That Scientific Research Is Another Domain Where A Form Of Optimism Is Essential To Success: I Have Yet To Meet A Successful Scientist Who Lacks The Ability To Exaggerate The Importance Of What He Or She Is Doing, And I Believe That Someone Who Lacks A Delusional Sense Of Significance Will Wilt In The Face Of Repeated Experiences Of Multiple Small Failures And Rare Successes, The Fate Of Most Researchers.

Doubts Are Suppressed By Groups... But Remember That The Internal Incentives That Shape How The Group Perceives Risks And Rewards May Be Very Different From The Reality Of The Risks And Rewards In The External Marketplace. Those Incentives Can Distort Risk Perception.

Often, The Most Enjoyable Part Of An Activity Is The Anticipation.