People Assign Much Higher Probability To The

We Were Required To Predict A Soldier's Performance In Officer Training And In Combat, But We Did So By Evaluating His Behavior Over One Hour In An Artificial Situation. This Was A Perfect Instance Of A General Rule That I Call Wysiati, "what You See Is All There Is." We Had Made Up A Story From The Little We Knew But Had No Way To Allow For What We Did Not Know About The Individual's Future, Which Was Almost Everything That Would Actually Matter. When You Know As Little As We Did, You Should Not Make Extreme Predictions Like "he Will Be A Star."

When People Think Of The Outcomes Of Their Decisions, They Think Much More Short Term Than That. They Think In Terms Of Gains And Losses.

People Should Be Conscious Of The Large Contribution Made By Anything That Gets People Together Easily In The Reduction Of Loneliness And Emotional Well-being.

A General “law Of Least Effort” Applies To Cognitive As Well As Physical Exertion. The Law Asserts That If There Are Several Ways Of Achieving The Same Goal, People Will Eventually Gravitate To The Least Demanding Course Of Action. In The Economy Of Action, Effort Is A Cost, And The Acquisition Of Skill Is Driven By The Balance Of Benefits And Costs. Laziness Is Built Deep Into Our Nature.

Some Memories Come With A Very Compelling Sense Of Truth About Them. And That Happens To Be The Case Even With Memories That Are Not True.