We Are Often Confident Even When We

People Exaggerate Their Confidence In Their Plans - Something We Call The Planning Fallacy... The Existence Of The Plan Tends To Induce Overconfidence.

Nothing In Life Is Quite As Important As You Think It Is While You're Thinking About It.

Managers Think Of Themselves As Captains Of A Ship On A Stormy Sea. Risk For Them Is Danger, But They Are Fighting It, Very Controlled.

If Owning Stocks Is A Long-term Project For You, Following Their Changes Constantly Is A Very, Very Bad Idea. It's The Worst Possible Thing You Can Do, Because People Are So Sensitive To Short-term Losses. If You Count Your Money Every Day, You'll Be Miserable.

Overconfidence Is A Powerful Source Of Illusions, Primarily Determined By The Quality And Coherence Of The Story That You Can Construct, Not By Its Validity.