The Tub Helps Me Relax, And It's

A Decline In The National Housing Price Level Would Need To Be Substantial To Trigger A Significant Rise In Foreclosures, Because The Vast Majority Of Homeowners Have Built Up Substantial Equity In Their Homes Despite Large Mortgage-market Financed Withdrawals Of Home Equity In Recent Years.

I Guess I Should Warn You, If I Turn Out To Be Particularly Clear, You've Probably Misunderstood What I've Said.

If I Say Something Which You Understand Fully In This Regard, I Probably Made A Mistake.

This Decade Is Strewn With Examples Of Bright People Who Thought They Built A Better Mousetrap That Could Consistently Extract Abnormal Returns From The Financial Markets. Some Succeed For A Time. But While There May Occasionally Be Mis-configurations Among Market Prices That Allow Abnormal Returns, They Do Not Persist.

Clearly, Sustained Low Inflation Implies Less Uncertainty About The Future, And Lower Risk Premiums Imply Higher Prices Of Stocks And Other Earning Assets. We Can See That In The Inverse Relationship Exhibited By Price/earnings Ratios And The Rate Of Inflation In The Past. But How Do We Know When Irrational Exuberance Has Unduly Escalated Asset Values, Which Then Become Subject To Unexpected And Prolonged Contractions As They Have In Japan Over The Past Decade?