Our Comforting Conviction That The World Makes

The Confidence People Have In Their Beliefs Is Not A Measure Of The Quality Of Evidence But Of The Coherence Of The Story The Mind Has Managed To Construct.

It Is Only A Slight Exaggeration To Say That Happiness Is The Experience Of Spending Time With People You Love And Who Love You.

Except For Some Effects That I Attribute Mostly To Age, My Intuitive Thinking Is Just As Prone To Overconfidence, Extreme Predictions, And The Planning Fallacy As It Was Before I Made A Study Of These Issues.

We Were Required To Predict A Soldier's Performance In Officer Training And In Combat, But We Did So By Evaluating His Behavior Over One Hour In An Artificial Situation. This Was A Perfect Instance Of A General Rule That I Call Wysiati, "what You See Is All There Is." We Had Made Up A Story From The Little We Knew But Had No Way To Allow For What We Did Not Know About The Individual's Future, Which Was Almost Everything That Would Actually Matter. When You Know As Little As We Did, You Should Not Make Extreme Predictions Like "he Will Be A Star."

If There Was One Ubiquitous Recommendation About Marriage It Was This: "don't Go To Bed Angry."