In War, Where Imperfect Intelligence, The Threat

We Must Evaluate The Political Sympathies Of Other States And The Effect War May Have On Them. To Assess These Things In All Their Ramifications And Diversity Is Plainly A Colossal Task. Rapid And Correct Appraisal Of Them Clearly Calls For The Intuition Of A Genius; To Master All This Complex Mass By Sheer Methodical Examination Is Obviously Impossible. Bonaparte Was Quite Right When He Said That Newton Himself Would Quail Before The Algebraic Problems It Could Pose.

If The Enemy Is To Be Coerced, You Must Put Him In A Situation That Is Even More Unpleasant Than The Sacrifice You Call On Him To Make. The Hardships Of The Situation Must Not Be Merely Transient - At Least Not In Appearance. Otherwise, The Enemy Would Not Give In, But Would Wait For Things To Improve.

War Is The Realm Of Uncertainty; Three-quarters Of The Factors On Which Action In War Is Based Are Wrapped In A Fog Of Greater Or Lesser Uncertainty. ... War Is The Realm Of Chance. No Other Human Activity Gives It Greater Scope; No Other Has Such Incessant And Varied Dealings With This Intruder. Chance Makes Everything More Uncertain And Interferes With The Whole Course Of Events.

Men Are Always More Inclined To Pitch Their Estimate Of The Enemy's Strength Too High Than Too Low, Such Is Human Nature.

Although Our Intellect Always Longs For Clarity And Certainty, Our Nature Often Finds Uncertainty Fascinating.