If You Get Beyond The Political Rhetoric

Given Our Inevitably Incomplete Knowledge About Key Structural Aspects Of Our Ever-changing Economy And The Sometimes Asymmetric Costs Or Benefits Of Particular Outcomes, A Central Bank... Need To Consider Not Only The Most Likely Future Path For The Economy But Also The Distribution Of Possible Outcomes About That Path. They Then Need To Reach A Judgment About The Probabilities, Costs, And Benefits Of The Various Possible Outcomes Under Alternative Choices For Policy.

People Dont Realize That We Cannot Forecast The Future. What We Can Do Is Have Probabilities Of What Causes What, But Thats As Far As We Go. And Ive Had A Very Successful Career As A Forecaster, Starting In 1948 Forward. The Number Of Mistakes I Have Made Are Just Awesome. There Is No Number Large Enough To Account For That.

All Taxes Are A Drag On Economic Growth. It's Only A Question Of Degree.

And Whatever Their Publicized Angst Over Saddam Hussein's 'weapons Of Mass Destruction,' American And British Authorities Were Also Concerned About Violence In An Area That Harbors A Resource Indispensable For The Functioning Of The Word Economy. I Am Saddened That It Is Politically Inconvenient To Acknowledge What Everyone Knows: The Iraq War Is Largely About Oil.

Without The Triggers, That Tax Cut Is Irreponsible Fiscal Policy. Eventually, I Think That Will Be The Consensus View.