Clearly, The Decision-making That We Rely On

We Are Far Too Willing To Reject The Belief That Much Of What We See In Life Is Random.

The Amount Of Success It Takes For Leaders To Become Overconfident Isn't Terribly Large.

Doubts Are Suppressed By Groups... But Remember That The Internal Incentives That Shape How The Group Perceives Risks And Rewards May Be Very Different From The Reality Of The Risks And Rewards In The External Marketplace. Those Incentives Can Distort Risk Perception.

There Is General Agreement Among Researchers That Nearly All Stock Pickers, Whether They Know It Or Not-and Few Of Them Do-are Playing A Game Of Chance.

There Are Some Conditions Where You Have To Trust Your Intuition.