Almost Everyone's Instinct Is To Be Overconfident

Precise Forecasts Masquerade As Accurate Ones.

It's A Little Strange To Become A Kind Of Symbol Of A Whole Type Of Analysis.

The Signal Is The Truth. The Noise Is What Distracts Us From The Truth.

The Quest For Certainty In Forecasting Outcomes Can Be The Enemy Of Progress.

To The Extent That You Can Find Ways Where You're Making Predictions, There's No Substitute For Testing Yourself On Real-world Situations That You Don't Know The Answer To In Advance.